Diary of a Punter: This Week’s Best Bets from @DrTwerp

Dear Football Betting Fraternity. I am @DrTwerp I am a registered man, gambler and reader of Dave Courtney books. This time last week I was face down arse up staring at the gutter. Not cool. After one incredible midweek, and a pretty anti-climactic weekend (due to putting too much weight against Cardiff) I am happy to say I am back on my horse Regulating and pitying fools. Profit is profit and after setting myself up beautifully on Saturday (no goals at Millwall, Watford doing the job, West Ham also), I was let down on Sunday by Cardiff leaving it too late (thankfully they did get the win though, backed at 4/6) to make me any significant returns.

Here is how I got on over the weekend:

Millwall v Charlton – 2pts: UNDER 2.5 GOALS – 12/11 +4.18

Watford v Barnsley – 3pts: WATFORD TO WIN – 4/5 +5.40
1pt: WATFORD TO WIN (-1) – 11/5 +3.20

Cardiff v Sheffield Wednesday – 3pts: CARDIFF TO WIN – 4/6 +5.00
4pts: OVER 2.5 GOALS – 4/6 -4.00
1pt: CARDIFF HT/FT – 6/4 -1.00

Norwich v Sunderland – 2pts: UNDER 2.5 GOALS – 8/11 -2.00

West Ham v Chelsea  – 1pt: WEST HAM TO WIN (DRAW NO BET) – 9/4 +3.25

QPR v Aston Villa – 2pts: SECOND HALF HIGHEST SCORING – 15/13 -2.00

Accumulator:
0.5pts: Middlesbrough(fri), Watford, Man United, Cardiff – 10.36/1 -0.50

Draw treble:
0.25pts: Norwich, West Ham, Forest – 33.39/1 -0.25

Anytime Goalscorer Treble:
0.25pts: Michu, Nolan, Suarez – 28.16/1 -0.25

12 bets, Stake 20.00, Returns 21.03
Weekend Profit/Loss: +1.03 (+5%)
Total Profit/Loss (from starting kitty of 11.25): +38.11 (49.36) (+339% profit)

Once again (with freaky regularity) my accumulator was let down by one team. C’est la vie. Le Freak c’est chic. Thanks to half of my weekend being staked on the Cardiff game, even though Saturday was fantastic to me I only made a 5% profit. Chump change . Sunday, bloody Sunday. I expected Sheffield Wednesday to get spanked and I got my nuts out for the occasion. It didn’t really pay off, a late winner putting me in profit for the weekend – after last weekend I am happy with a P and not an L. 

In 13 weeks my 11p is now 49p. Sweet like chocolate. You don’t see +339% profit in 13 weeks from the failing UK banking sector now do you? This time next year Rodders…

As you can see, I have only reported a loss once in ten Diary Of A Punter entries. With that in mind, I am ready to raise my stakes. With only one Prem game and the final round of group games in the Champions League (a political and psychological minefield) I am not comfortable putting my foot down just yet. I am betting this midweek but not big. Here are my bets for midweek:

Monday December 3^rd

Newcastle v Wigan

Roberto Martinez would never shag one of his players’ wives. Pardew would, and apparently did when he was at Charlton. Nice. Whilst I’m sure Newcastle will have a lot of backers this evening, expecting them to get a result sooner-or-later… Beware home-owners: This is Newcastle’s 8^th game in 4 weeks. The Europa League has given them Football Aids. Although they still have the Outhere Brothers up front they are short on creativity in midfield (no Cabaye and Ben Arfa). Newcastle have only taken 1 point from their last 5 prem games, scoring only 3 goals (and only 1 win from 9). They have also only scored more than once in 4 games out of 14 in the league. That massive contract Alan Pardew is on starts to look more and more ridiculous. Newcastle are one mental club. However, so are the Warriors. Wigan’s inconsistency make them a tough side to bet on/against (wins at Tottenham and West Ham offset by losses at United, Liverpool, Swansea and Sunderland). As I was told when, I was a kid – if I like swearing and violence, I will LOVE New Jack City. I did. And if you like New Jack City, you will love this: Every one of Wigan’s away games this season has been 0-0 at half-time (they have scored 4 and conceded 10 after Half-Time). I made money a couple of weeks ago buying a 0-0 half-time score when Wigan went to Anfield and I’m doing the same again here.  Newcastle have only scored 2 goals themselves at home by Half-Time (conceding 4) in 7 games. They have scored 5 and conceded 5 after HT. To ignore such statistics would be silly. WONGA

1.5pts: HALF-TIME SCORE 0-0 – 2/1 with Betfred

3pts: SECOND HALF HIGHEST SCORING – 15/13 with bWin

Tuesday December 4^th

Borussia Dortmund v Man City

I am treading carefully with the Champions League this week. Too many teams have qualified, don’t have to win, don’t want to win, have won the group aleady, do want to finish 3^rd, would rather finish bottom etc. That said, the more I look at the price of Dortmund the more I like it. What was 6/5 during homework-time last night is now best-price 11/10. A home win here will be odds-on by kick-off. There are two ways of looking at this one: A) Dortmund have already won the group and had a hard game on Saturday (drew 1-1 at Bayern Munich). B) Man City don’t want to finish 3^rd (therefore avoiding the Europa) and have got United on Sunday. Both are true but so is this: Dortmund absolutely fingered City at the Etihad and had it not been for a massive performance from drag queen Joe Hart could (and should) have won by a few. That said, the more I look at this the less I like the idea of relying on a team (however good they are) to win a game they don’t need to. A draw will suit both teams – Dortmund will win the group and City will avoid the curse of the EU. I will include a Dortmund win in my midweek accumulator but rely on a more trustworthy market to secure profit from this game.

Both Teams To Score (after plenty of clean sheets earlier in the season) has landed in Dortmund’s last 7 games (and 13/15). This season City have only failed to score 2 times in 17 games this season (including the charity shield), even if they rest players they have quality coming in. Even though they have kept 5 clean sheets in their last 9 games, City still don’t convince defensively and I will be amazed if they keep a clean sheet away at Dortmund who are a sexy unit much like Coco, Ice T’s wife. Both Teams banging at least one in each other’s pussy sounds good to me.

5pts: BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE – 4/7 with Bet365

Champions League Accumulator:

1pt: Dortmund, Man United, Barcelona, Olympiakos, Real Madrid – 18.51/1 with William Hill

Champions League Double:

2pts: Barcelona, Man United – 1.56/1 with William Hill

Anyone who has been reading this Diary for a while will know I’m shit-scared of betting on the Europa League and anyway it interferes with the gloryhole I run on a Thursday. Tread carefully betting on teams with everything/nothing to play for. I lost money the other week laying Lille (already out). Lille went there shackles-off and proper wanked off Bate(who needed a win). The Champions League is dodgy this week. Case in point: A draw in the Juventus game is best-price 18/19 (sends both sides through). Plenty of dodgy shit about to go down.

So be careful, only bet what you can afford to lose and enjoy the football this midweek.

Hit me up @DrTwerp on twitter if you want to.

Let’s get midweek out the way and attack the weekend. Remember, what she calls a gambling problem, we call a gambling solution.

I MISS HER

no one cares no one cares no one cares

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