Diary of a Punter: Searching the Forest for my money

This is a new feature on thatsagoal.com where we will get inside the head of one of our followers and avid punters, he goes by the name of Leo and you can laugh at/praise his punting on Twitter @DrTwerp. Just make sure you tag us too so we can join in the heckle @thatsagoal.

Punting This Week:

Ouch. Sore. I got bummed on Wednesday afternoon by 11 Indians. Not literally of course. I backed India to beat New Zealand and got caught counting my money with my pants round my English ankles. Luckily I wasn’t outside a school.  I am informed my special Indian boys traded 1/100 in-play. Like I said – ouch!

I have done some stupid sh*t during international breaks. Rarely do you learn two lessons in a few hours but betting on Twenty20 cricket is as foolish as backing England. I got stuck into Roy’s boys to win HT/FT at best price 7/5. There is no doubt Defoe scored a perfectly good goal as did Tom Cleverly (hang on… wait a sec…) both before half-time while the game was 0-0 but small stakes meant this hurt my head more than my pocket.

I was also on Belgium (who, like friendless England, drifted all day too). They hit 6/5 and I got starstruck. The attacking options in that squad are sweet like chocolate boy. I went for it. Confidently. I got a Fellaini tattoo just above my Van Damme one. With hindsight, it looks weird as anything.

Thankfully I’m not a complete loser and slightly larger stakes on over 2.5 goals in the Austria v Germany qualifier (best price 8/13) meant Tuesday was forgettable but not horrific.

All said and done, I’m sore but I’m wise. I can identify with raped Owls all over the world.

This Weekend's Punts

International break over, thank god. I’m ready to domesticate myself again. It’s my bird’s birthday on Monday. Good job she loves a bit of MNF. Here are my picks for the weekend. All going well, I’ve still got someone to have sex with on Tuesday.

Friday 14^th – Charlton v Palace

The anorak derby.  With so many train stations in and around the South-East London area, both sets of fans should be absolutely buzzing for this one making for a cracker on the TV before Saturday even starts.  Palace meet their trainspotting arch-rivals off the back of a good win against Sheff Wed (poor Owls) but having let in 10 goals in three away games not to mention their last six games all bringing in +2.5 goals I fully expect goals at the Valley.  Four palace games this season have brought 16 goals. Although not free-scoring so far this season, Charlton are unbeaten in eight at home and should go at Palace from the off.

1 point: OVER 2.5 GOALS – Best price 20/19 with 188bet

Saturday 15^th – Norwich v West Ham

“Come on. Where are you? Let’s be having you!” With the exception of Floyd Mayweather, there is nothing on this planet more annoying than a drunk woman. Although having kept just one clean sheet since the beginning of February, this must also irritate Norwich fans. Their new manager, Cat from Red Dwarf will obviously be hoping he can sort this out but he won’t be able to. I expect West Ham to be tough to beat at home this season and hit-and-miss away from home.

With Big Sam re-assembling his Bolton side in East London you know what you are going to get. With that in mind, back Jay-Jay Okocha to score first. If not, Kevin Nolan is good value at 10/1 (Ladbrokes). Last season Norwich only failed to score at home against four sides (Spurs, Liverpool, Chelsea and West Brom). Taking Norwich’s defensive ineptitude and their ability to take chances at home, a safer bet is both teams to find the net.

1.5 points: BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE– Best price 8/11 with Sky Bet

Arsenal v Southampton

Arsene knows. Then he didn’t. Now he does again. Or does he? Who knows. What I do know is that Steve Bould seems to have sorted out their shape at the back. Possibly their best signing over the summer was getting him involved from a defensive point of view. Against Liverpool, Arsenal started looking sexy again and against a Southampton team who come to play I expect an open game. For years, buying goals when Arsenal were at home was a good thing, perhaps not so this season. Belgium globetrotter Thomas Vermaelen scored last weekend against Wales and has been bombing on since the start of the season like he does. Bearing in mind he ends up as a striker if things aren’t going well and he always gets 90 minutes, the value bet here is small stakes on him scoring last.

If Arsenal do revert to type and ignore the defensive side of things, a 3-2 scoreline might be worth a go especially when you take into account Southampton’s playing style, the addition of Gaston Ramirez (born in Fray Bentos!) and the fact they went down 3-2 to both City and United. I can’t believe Fray Bentos is even a place.

0.5 points: VERMAELEN SCORE LAST – best price 18/1 with Coral

0.25 points: ARSENAL WIN 3-2 – best price 28/1 with Coral

Sunderland v Liverpool

After an emotional week for Liverpool, they go to Sunderland in bad shape. BAD was the first album I ever got my little 7 year old hands on. Having failed to turn up at home against Arsenal they go to Sunderland in need of points. Sunderland will be up for this, off the back of two well earned points away at Swansea and Arsenal I reckon they’ll fancy this in their first home game of the season. Sunderland have drawn seven of their last 10. Liverpool have failed to score in seven of their last 14 away games.

Ok yes, they have a new manager and a new playing style so last season’s results should be discarded but wait a second – when you take into account Brendan Rodgers’ Swansea side failed to score in half of their away games last season (including a 2-0 defeat at Sunderland) you have to fancy Sunderland in this one. I refuse to call them the Black Cats. Not only is it racist but it’s a sh*t nickname. I don’t see this being a goalfest, Sunderland have failed to score in three of their last five home games but first home game of the season I expect them to get a positive result.

2 points: SUNDERLAND (+1) – best price 8/13 with bet365

1 point: UNDER 2.5 GOALS – best price 10/11 with Bet Victor

Man United v Wigan

I like Wigan. I like Roberto Martinez and I like teams who stare relegation in the face, go three at the back and not only beat but absolutely batter big boys on their way to staying up. That said, as much as I admire their style of play, I don’t see them reversing the 5-0 vandalizing they got at Old Trafford last boxing day. Wether or not United have Van Persie and his snotty nose or their new ninja Kagawa fit for Saturday is as yet uncertain. This however is not the point.

United have enough quality in their squad to take the chances they will no doubt create and I fully expect them to win “to nil” at home. Vidic no longer plays internationals, neither does Ferdinand and these international breaks will have less of an impact on their back four than most other teams. Although they looked far from rock-solid against Southampton, at home there will be far less pressure on them and for me, this is easy money.

3 points: UNITED TO WIN “TO NIL” – best price 20/19 with Paddy Power

Bristol City v Blackburn

Bristol City fans have seen 11 goals in two home games. People from Blackburn who have paid to watch Blackburn games in the Blackburn ends at Leeds and MK Dons have seen eight goals in two away games. The stats suggest this is like two Mexicans, with loaded gloves, refusing to protect themselves about to knock fifty shades of sh*t out of each other with no regard for safety. I went on holiday this summer and the amount of girls openly reading “mommy porn” novel fifty shades of grey horrified me. The looks I got by the pool when I whipped out my “daddy porn” were evil. I was hated. I felt like Steve Kean.

1 point: OVER 3.5 GOALS – best price 23/10 with Sportingbet

Nottingham Forest v Birmingham

No matter how early in the season (and four games in isn’t one game in) the team in 3^rd being priced up at 6/5 when playing at home against the team 4^th from bottom has to be walked straight to the police station, fast-tracked through the courts and sent to prison for exactly a year. Okay, only four points separate these two sides but Forest have started well and spent money this summer and I expect them to further demoralize a Birmingham team who let in three against Coventry (one goal in two games since) and two against Watford (two goals in two games since). It took an own goal for Birmingham to beat rock-bottom Peterborough 1-0 last time out but I think Forest will grab three points here and keep on keepin’ on.

2 points: FOREST TO WIN – best price 6/5 with Paddy Power

And that concludes the bets the quality of my girlfriend’s birthday rely on.

Football is the best.

The Indian cricket team aren’t.

Yours, the raped owl
@DrTwerp