Diary of a Punter: Back on the Horse

 Ok hands up: My name is @DrTwerp and I am a loser – I still have my Dr’s badges and all that, it’s just not as successful an operation as it once was. I’m not overly concerned, bad days happen, so can bad weekends and bad weeks.

As long as a bad week sits on the lap of a good month then I’m sweet like chocolate. Last weekend had cruel intentions; there were goals at Swansea, Everton didn’t get their fast start and Newcastle’s brotherhood failed to strike. But only just. Inches. Small margins meant a small loss. Still, a small loss still makes me a loser. Three diaries running. This is getting ridiculous. Skyfall. I’m still up from my starting stake but here is how my world collapsed last weekend:

West Brom v QPR – 1.5pts: WEST BROM TO WIN – 10/11 +2.86

                                       0.5pts: WEST BROM TO WIN TO NIL – 11/5 -0.5

Swansea v Reading – 1pt: UNDER 2.5 GOALS – 39/40 -1.00

Wigan v Everton – 1pt: EVERTON HT/FT – 13/5 -1.00

0.25pts: FELLAINI SCORE FIRST – 9/1 -0.25

Southampton v Fulham – 2.5pts: BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE – 8/11 +4.42

2pts: OVER 2.5 GOALS – 4/5 +3.60

0.5pts: BERBATOV TO SCORE ANYTIME – 9/4 VOID BET +0.50

Blackpool v Charlton & Palace v Burnley – 1.5pts: BLACKPOOL/PALACE WIN DOUBLE – 3/1 -1.50

Newcastle v Man United – 3 pts: BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE – 8/11 -3.00

     2pts: OVER 2.5 GOALS – 4/5 +3.60

0.25pts: BEN ARFA TO SCORE ANYTIME – 5/1 -0.25

0.5pts: DEMBA BA TO SCORE ANYTIME – 12/5 -0.50

13 bets, Stake 16.50, Returns 14.98

Midweek Profit/loss:  -1.52 (-9%)

Total Profit/loss (from a starting kitty of 11.25pts): +6.02 (+54%)

Since the beginning of my diary four straight profits have been followed by three losses. As a youth after I lost my V Plates I remember I had sex with a frizzy ginger girl we called The Cat a couple of days later. I was the man! Then I went ages without any action. Profits are like women. And women are like buses. You get on a couple in a row then they start flying straight past you controlled by Africans with leather waistcoats, Bluetooth headsets and fingerless gloves. Nothing ever lasts forever.

Instead of immediately dusting myself off and getting back on my horse like I have done a thousand times when chasing I checked both beloved horse and I into a motel for the week so we could purely observe (and not bet on) the internationals (apart from a small accumulator on Friday – let down by France – and a couple of wild scorecasts). Gambling comes very naturally to cowboys like me and opting not to bet in the interests of protecting my profit was not an easy decision. It also meant that comedywise I missed the Jimmy Saville window which is bollocks. Theoretically this act of Scientology gives me an advantage going into midweek. I now know absolutely everything about international football in Europe. The domestic football this weekend was also given a wide. Not because I wanted to observe and report but I was busy out with my woman and showing her how to take advantage of slack security at Hobbyworld.

Enough is enough, I need to do my flies up and get on with my life. Real football is a working week away. I can’t do this on my own. Here are my bets for midweek. I’ll be honest with you twerps, confidence is low. I need a good one here real bad. I’m tired of being a loser. Time to regulate. Mount up:

Monday 15^th October – Port Vale v Oxford

Welcome to League Two. What a shithole. I’m not in my comfort zone here either. Port Vale have only won two home games in the league so far (out of 5) and while they will no doubt target three points here this Oxford side have livened up after a bad start, are unbeaten in three and in their last two games have held leaders Gillingham (who beat Port Vale 0-2) to a 0-0 draw before spanking Cheltenham (who sit third) 2-4 in the cup. So although probable (Port Vale won this fixture 3-0 in May), taking notice of both sides recent results I’m wary of backing the home win at such short prices in a 3-outcome market. Port Vale are second with a game in hand on Gillingham and North Korean striker Tom Pope is League Two’s top nutter banging 11 birds in 11 nightclubs this season, all in full drag. Anyone averaging a goal a game priced up at 6/5 to score against a team letting in an average of two a game is fine by me. Decent performances aside, when you take into account Oxford have lost 4 of their 5 away games this season conceding 12 goals they should concede more here. Both sides league matches so far are averaging over 3 goals and I’m slightly more comfortable buying goals than I am backing Port Vale.

5pts: OVER 2.5 GOALS – 4/5 with Bet365

0.5pts: OVER 3.5 GOALS – 2/1 with Willam Hill

1pt: TOM POPE TO SCORE ANYTIME – 6/5 with Ladbrokes
 

Tuesday 16^th October – Poland v England

Good old Poland. We used to get these in every qualifying group. What a waste of time. Everyone talks about what a tough fixture it is and how hostile it is and they had a crazy keeper once and now they’ve got a striker who plays for Dortmund. Big deal. Cheap labour. England weren’t great on Friday, far from it but so what? We learn zero from games like that. San Marino should be nuked. What I need to do here is not go on about England’s problems but focus on what is known about these two sides. Firstly, Poland don’t score much. You can see this by looking at their results since this time last year. Allow me: 0-2,0-2,2-1,1-0,0-0,1-0,1-0,4-0 (vAndorra),1-1,1-1,1-0,1-0,2-2,2-0,1-0. Up your bollocks Lewandowski. England’s last year? Fuck it let’s do it matrix fans: 1-0,2-2,1-0,1-0 (vSpain. This was a bad night for me),2-3,0-1,1-0,1-1,2-3,1-0,0-0,2-1,0-5,1-1,5-0. My supercomputer tells me that in 20 of these 30 games there has been a clean sheet kept by one side or another. We’re not great with the ball at all and Roy won’t send a team there to attack. As unimpressive as Poland are, I don’t think we are much better. Will we win? Hope so but not sure. Even money doesn’t appeal to me. Will it rain goals? No. This game will take place on a channel 5 style pitch in the pissing rain and it won’t be HD ready. It will be horrible to watch and if you look closely the Poland kit is made by Lonsdale and their shorts have poppers up the sides.

2pts: UNDER 2.5 GOALS – 8/11 – with Stan James

1pts: BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE: NO – 37/40 with Bet Victor

Bury v Carlisle

It’s easy to find a team at the bottom of the league and bet against them. Bury are rock bottom and have picked up 2 points from the last possible 24. Last 8 games: P8 D2 L6. However, my the current league positions of their opponents in those 8 games are as follows: 5^th, 8^th, 3^rd, 1^st, 7^th, 2^nd, 6^th and on Saturday conceding in the 94^th minute at Crawley who sit 4^th. That’s the entire top 8 played in their last 8 games. Next up for poor Bury is mid-table Carlisle who got honked 0-4 at home on Saturday. I got my fingers burnt the other week betting on Brighton to beat a Birmingham side fresh off the back of a 0-5 defeat. They lost. Similarly, a lot of people were hurt by Scotland in the week getting beat by Wales off the back of a 6-1 hammering in Serbia. Carlisle were battered on Saturday but have won their last three away games 1-2. This is a fourth game in ten days for Bury and regardless of who they have played this season, 4 points from 11 games suggests they are proper shit. Up against a team who have won their last 3 away games (against teams who DONT get beat every game) I will happily take them on.

1.2 pts: CARLISLE TO WIN – 6/4 with Bet Victor

0.2 pts: CARLISLE TO WIN 2-1 – 17/2 general

And this accumulator sod it. Pitbull. Mister International. Worldwide:

1pt: USA (v Guatemala), BELGIUM (v Scotland), MOLDOVA (v San Marino), PORTUGAL (v Northern Ireland), ARGENTINA (v Chile), MEXICO (v El Salvador) – 21/1 with Bet Victor

Enjoy the football this week everyone. Lets get this out the way. I miss the big boy shit. Roll on the weekend. Follow me on twitter @drtwerp  if you miss someone.
I MISS HER.

Today: The Cat. However, next diary I will weave the girl called Sparrowhawk, the Circle Master and the one who went “stick it up the bum bruv” into my narrative.

Best of luck everybody betting and I hope we all win stacks of $100 bills