Diary of a Punter: @DrTwerp’s Millwall vs Brighton Betting Tips for Tonight

As is the norm these last few weeks I had yet another volatile weekend. I had lowered my stakes after my arsehole nearly fell out the previous weekend but a loss is a loss is a loss. No one likes a loser.

Recent weeks have been hard on me (with the exception of the Manchester derby miracle, which was perhaps my finest hour in a long time) but I’m a Regulator. It’s in my blood to Mount Up. If I keep thinking positive everything’s going to be sweet like chocolate. Right? Let’s hope so.

Here is how I lost money at the weekend:

Newcastle v Man City
0.2pts: HT NEWCASTLE FT MAN CITY – 25/1 -0.20
0.8pts: HT DRAW FT MAN CITY – 17/4 -0.80
1.5pts: SECOND HALF HIGHEST SCORING – 11/10 -1.50

Norwich v Wigan
0.5pts: HT DRAW FT NORWICH – 9/2 -0.50
0.5pts: NORWICH TO WIN “TO NIL” – 3/1 -0.50

Stoke v Everton
1pt: DRAW – 23/10 +3.30

Liverpool v Aston Villa
2pts: UNDER 2.5 GOALS – 6/5 -2.00
0.5pts: HALF-TIME SCORE 0-0 – 23/10 -0.50

Blackpool v Blackburn
1pt: DRAW – 5/2 -1.00
2pts: BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE – 4/6 -2.00

Birmingham v Palace
3pts: PALACE TO WIN (DRAW NO BET) – 5/6 +3.00

Tottenham v Swansea
3pts: BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE – 7/10 -3.00

Accumulator:
0.5pts: Palace, Hull, Millwall, Charlton – 51.87/1 -0.50

Draw Treble:
0.25pts: Stoke, QPR, Blackpool – 38.81/1 -0.25

14 bets, Stake 16.75, Returns 6.30

Weekend Profit/Loss: -10.45
Total Profit/Loss (from starting kitty of 11.25): +33.03 (44.28)

Ok so blamewise; big shout outs to that Newcastle defender swinging his legs about on the goal-line, the Liverpool defence for getting abused by Wretch32, Blackburn for failing to score and Charlton for not winning (once again, my accumulator let down by one side not doing their part. I hate accumulative betting). You can do all the research you like in this game, trust me I’m like Mantracker when I’m hunting down betting angles. Football is football and it will always find a way to Di Canio you in the fanny.

Volatile to say the least. With profit for the season currently running at just short of +300% I’m not overly concerned. The glut of games over the next few weeks will make or break me. Surgery is open this week, but only just. I’m only betting on one game this week and it’s tonight:

Brighton v Millwall

Ah, the fixture that gave football it’s best ever song. “We can see you holding hands”. Hats off Mirwol that is a tune. No one likes you? I do. I like you tonight my little Lions. Although Brighton are unbeaten in 5 at home, they have only won 4 games at home all season (v Sheff Wed, Peterbrough, Bristol City and Barnsley. The bottom 4) and for me, the value lies with the away side. Millwall lost their last away game at Ipswich but that was their only defeat in FIFTEEN games and they bounced back with a good win on Saturday at home to Leicester. Millwall like a one-nil win (three of their last six games have seen Millwall win by this scoreline) and keep plenty of clean sheets (7 clean sheets in their last 10 games) and 6/8 games have seen less than 2.5 goals. Brighton games average significantly less goals than any other side in the Championship (2.27) and 7/8 home games have seen less than 2.5 goals. With the above in mind, and the fact that since Brighton had a great start to the season, Millwall had a poor one and still sit 3 points above the bummers (this would be an 8^th win in 11 league games if Millwall get one), I’m placing bets on the following:

3pts: UNDER 2.5 GOALS – 5/6 with Ladbrokes

2pts: MILLWALL TO WIN (DRAW NO BET) – 17/10 with Bet Victor

0.5pts: MILLWALL TO WIN “TO NIL” – 11/2 with Paddy Power

0.5pts: MILLWALL TO WIN 0-1 – 11/1 with Bet Victor

Bet on this match with a new Ladbrokes account and get £50 free to use. To get your free £50 bet:

1. Click this link straight to Ladbrokes

2. Open a new account for free

3. Place a bet of £50

4. Win or lose get the £50 refunded back to you

I like it and I just stuck a ring on it.

Good luck anybody betting this midweek and as usual I am going to assault the weekend violently. You have my word.

I MISS HER

find me @drtwerp on twitter