Diary of a Punter: The Best Weekend Bets from @DrTwerp

CRUNCH. There it is. The unmistakeable sound of a previously well-kept vehicle of profit crashing straight into the central reservation. I suffered massive losses in midweek. Winter Wipeout.

I lost every single one of my bets, my temper, my Bluetooth headset and most worryingly, my confidence. I now haven’t won a bet since LAST SATURDAY. The thing is, I knew better than to bet on the last round of group games in the Champions League but I did anyway. I am so disappointed with myself. Please don’t hate me. Here is a breakdown of my losses in midweek (this hurts):

Newcastle v Wigan
1.5pts: HALF-TIME SCORE 0-0 – 2/1 -1.50
3pts: SECOND HALF HIGHEST SCORING – 15/13 -3.00

Borussia Dortmund v Man City
5pts: BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE – 4/7 -5.00

Champions League Accumulator:
1pt: Dortmund, Man United, Barcelona, Olympiakos, Real Madrid – 18.51/1 -1.00

Champions League Treble:
2pts: Barcelona, Man United – 1.56/1 -2.00

5 bets, Stake 12.50, Returns 0.00

Midweek Profit/loss: – 12.50 (-100%)
Total Kitty (starting kitty of 11.25): 36.86 (+25.61) +228% profit

Now and again a sound-looking bet will have its pants pulled down by a crazy ref (see Monday night) and you have to take losses like that on the chin *wipes mouth, moves on*. Fine. Done. One thing I find harder to swallow is losing money on games I know I shouldn’t be touching. With the benefit of hindsight – what the fuck was I thinking placing a bet that size on a game with more politics involved than Nelson Mandela’s continental breakfast? Fuck you Man City.

I apologize to anyone who may have followed my bets in the week, I’m the real loser here trust me. No doubt my tormentor on twitter will be back this weekend calling me a skint cunt again. I hope so, last time he did I bounced back immediately with an even bigger profit.

Surgery has been fucking crazy lately, my profits/losses have either been huge or minimal. Having not reported any losses for seven diaries, I have now seen two (and significant ones at that) twice in my last four. That said, I’ve still made +228% profit on my starting stake 13 weeks ago so I’m considerably up. I could pretend I’m not panicked but I am. Still, I will continue doing what I was doing earlier in the season (but with bigger stakes) and with a bit of luck (which I haven’t had since last Saturday) I’ll be feeling much more positive by Monday.

Here is my season so far (13 weeks, starting in mid-September).  Man I long for the days when I could run my fingers across those steady autumn curves. It is looking like a volatile winter and I don’t like it:

 

At least the Champions League is over with for a couple of months. Come back to what you know. I said in midweek that I was ready to go big this weekend and I am a man of my word. Here I am, with NUTS OUT.

Regulators, Mount Up. Here are the Dr’s recommendations for the weekend:

 

Saturday 8^th

Aston Villa v Stoke

I can’t stand Stoke, not only for footballing reasons but because that cunt of a manger they’ve got wears a baseball cap. Not cool. If I was a manager I would wear bespoke suits, smoke the shit out of 200 benson from my dugout. I wouldn’t speak. Ever. I would go on hunger strike if we lost and I would bring high-class hookers to the dugout with me. I would basically bring Sexy back. Not Mr Pulis though, he’s one of those no-nonsense types isn’t he. I tell you what is no-nonsense and that is this: Stoke games are averaging 1.7 goals per game and Villa games average only 2.3. When you factor in Stoke’s only actual football player Charlie Adam is missing and Villa have only scored more than one in 1/11 games my bet becomes more and more obvious. Five of the last six Villa home games have seen less than 2.5 goals and so have six of the last eight Stoke away games. No matter what happens on Saturday, this game will not produce oil and Tony Pulis will not win Best Dressed Male. And only in his dreams will he ever win Hardest Cunt.

1.5pts: UNDER 2.5 GOALS – 8/11 with StanJames

Arsenal v West Brom

6/1? For me this is a 50:50. I’m backing West Brom if for no other reason that I will not see value go to waste.  There are starving kids in Africa. They probably support Arsenal.

1.5pts: WEST BROM TO WIN – 6/1 general price

Watford v Hull

One side who have been good to me recently is little Zola’s mob. Watford are still bouncing along nicely (unbeaten in 7) and brought me sweet profit twice last week. I’m on them again here but with a twist. Three times recently Watford have came on strong in the second half (1-6 v Leeds, 1-4 v Wednesday and 4-1 v Barnsley) and this is a trend I’m looking to exploit again. Watford have been drawing 9/20 games by HT and Hull 10/20. In ten home games Watford have only let in ONE goal by half-time so fuck it man I’ll hope for another crazy second half – I’ve backed the following:

2pts: WATFORD TO WIN – 7/5 with Coral

0.5pts: HT DRAW/FT WATFORD – 5/1 with Coral, William Hill, Ladbrokes

Charlton v Brighton

Anoraks and Unicycles. Trainspotters and Jugglers. In their last 5 games, Charlton have kept 4 clean sheets. Very clean. Brighton have fired blanks in 3/6 away games and lost last weekend 3-0 at Palace (although played 82 minutes with 10 men). Charlton games average 2.5 goals per game and Brighton even less, averaging just 2.3 goals per game. In two thirds of both Charlton and Brighton’s games there have been -2.5 goals. I sold goals in the south London clasico last weekend and it paid off. I’m doing the same here with sidebets on Charlton (drawing 90% of home games so far by HT) either getting a winner second half or winning “to nil”. Or both. Hopefully.

2pts: UNDER 2.5 GOALS – 9/11 with 188bet
1pt: CHARLTON TO WIN “TO NIL” – 4/1 with PaddyPower and Coral
0.5pts: HT DRAW/ FT CHARLTON – 23/4 with bWin

Ipswich v Millwall

The league’s lowest scorers face the Championship’s most hated side. Millwall are now unbeaten since the 22^nd September (13 games). They have only conceded 2 in 8 games. Millwall won 0-3 here off the back of a similar run at the end of last season and that puts me off backing Under 2.5 goals. I fancy a Millwall away win strongly here and am betting accordingly. I won’t be surprised if they keep another clean sheet.

1pt: MILLWALL TO WIN “TO NIL” – 4/1 with BlueSq, 888sport and Ladbrokes
3pts: MILLWALL TO WIN – 13/8 with SportingBet, BetVictor and BlueSq

Sunday 9^th

Man City v Man United

Bang bang. Welcome to gunchester. With this much firepower on show (and two defences that don’t inspire much confidence) I’m backing goals. United away games this season have seen 30 goals in 8 games. City have only let in 6 at home but their 8 home games have seen 25 goals. For me, Manchester United (wether Vidic is back or not) can’t rely on keeping a clean sheet here (1 clean sheet on the road all season) and will look to outscore City. City’s home form (in the league at least is shit hot) but United have won 8 games on the road this season, and 7 of those 8 by a single goal (last 3 away wins 2-3, 2-3 and 3-4). There has been an odd number of goals in 8/9 meeting between these two since 2007. Wether or not Man City have remembered how to defend, United will score.  City’s last 5 games in all competitions have all seen under 2.5 goals (skewed by a dead-rubber against Dortmund on Tuesday and Real Madrid going easy on them in the previous gameweek) but this is Manchester United (with a stronger squad every game) and this stinks of goals to me. Ok, City won this 1-0 last season but that was a 1-0 against a United side not half as promiscuous as this season’s version. I don’t see any clean sheets here.

4pts: BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE – 8/13 with Ladbrokes
3pts: TOTAL GOALS: ODD – Evens with 188bet
2pts: OVER 3.5 GOALS – 2/1 with Ladbrokes
0.5pts: UNITED TO WIN 3-2 – 33/1 with StanJames

Everton v Tottenham

Another game I’m happy to get my goal-counter out for is this one. Looks like Spurs might be without the space monkey for this one so rather than buy goals outright I’ll follow the same trend that follows Spurs about on the road and Everton at home: Both Teams To Score has come in at every home game since Everton beat United 1-0 on the opening Monday of the season and 6/7 of Spurs away games. Priced up at 8/11 I am throwing a big old chunk of change at this. Fellaini and Defoe are getting more goalpussy than anyone at the moment and with this to lean on, not to mention both these sides struggling to keep clean sheets I’m making this my biggest bet of the weekend. Fuck it. Season. My biggest bet of the season. I’m a renegade.

6.5pts: BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE – 8/11 with bet365

West Ham v Liverpool

No Suarez? No thanks. Not sure how Liverpool are favourites for this match. West Ham might be without Andy Carroll (West Ham have only lost 2/21 of games that Carlton Cole has started under Allardyce) but blew Chelsea away last weekend and can do again on Sunday against a Liverpool side minus Sewer Rodent (next in the Liverpool top scorer charts is own goals). I had fun backing West Ham at a huge price in the Draw-No-Bet market last weekend and I’m doing the same again here. The cockney wankers have only lost once at home this season and Liverpool have only won once in the league away (Suarez inspired against Norwich). All said and done, I’ll back West Ham in the DrumNBass market and hope Liverpool’s 7^th game in 22 days ends in defeat.

2pts: WEST HAM TO WIN (DRAW NO BET) – 6/5 with PaddyPower

Accumulator:

0.15pts: Watford, Millwall, West Brom, Man United – 148.65/1 with Coral

Draw Treble:

0.25pts: Swansea, West Ham, Forest – 41.77 with BetVictor

I told you I was going big this weekend Twerps and I am a man of my word.

Although my confidence has taken a knock over recent weeks with a couple of really big losses, I feel confident that I’ve got my weighting right this weekend and I will be back on an upwards curve by Monday. Let’s fucking hope so.

Like I told you Regulators: Nuts out.

Mount up.

Good luck everyone betting this weekend

Twonk me @drtwerp for  general life musings

I MISS HER

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