Diary of a Punter: A Profitable Start

Now my daddy left home when I was three and he didn’t leave much to me, just this old guitar and an empty bottle of booze.  Johnny Cash sang that. My dad left me more. What he failed to hand down to me was any patience.  The weekend’s first two picks of mine were found floating about in Barrymore’s pool before 3pm Saturday.  

I can sympathise with anyone who watched Charlton v Palace on Friday night because I did. Ian Wright’s youngest son Dave Benson Phillips had a perfectly good opener ruled out for offside after half hour and my bet on +2.5 goals died a slow death.  In a game with 28 attempts on goal, there should have been more. Ultimately, Charlton couldn’t finish their Bovril so Palace kept a first clean sheet since March.

When you pick Both Teams To Score in a 0-0 draw, lesser men take a long hard look at themselves in the mirror. My gender re-alignment surgery was only recently so I chose not to. No-one wants to look at that. With only half an hour between the end of the Norwich v West Ham game and the 3pm kick-offs I warmed down, warmed up again and got my sh*t together like the man I used to be.

I am a man really of course and I proved this going big on United to win “to nil”. The Bristol City v Blackburn game also brought me profit. Being on +3.5 goals was the right call. This one ended 8-2 to United. It was like a porno. Hold on. No Sorry that was Pat Rice’s youth club last September. Small stakes on speculative punts in the Arsenal game didn’t hurt but Nottingham Forest not beating Birmingham did.

I watched the late kick-off round O.J. Simpson’s house. I gave Sunderland a one-goal head start just for being the Black Cats and went under on the 2.5 goals market. Going underground doesn’t come naturally to me I find it perverse. Pervy can be good though, and Sunderland left me feeling sweet like chocolate boy Saturday night.

Weekend Profit/Loss

Charlton v Palace – 1 point: OVER 2.5 GOALS -20/19 -1.0

Norwich v West Ham – 1.5 pts: BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE – 8/11 -1.5

Arsenal v Southampton – 0.5 pts: VERMAELEN SCORE LAST -18/1, 0.25 pts: ARSENAL 3-2 – 28/1 -0.75  

Man United v Wigan  – 3 pts: UNITED TO WIN “TO NIL” – 20/19 +6.15

Bristol City v Blackburn  – 1 point: OVER 3.5 GOALS – 23/10 +3.3

Nottingham Forest v Birmingham  – 2 pts: FOREST TO WIN – 6/5 -2.0

Sunderland v Liverpool  – 2 pts: SUNDERLAND (+1 ) -8/13 +3.24 ,  1 pt: UNDER 2.5 goals – 10/11 +1.91

Stake 11.25, Returns 14.6, Profit/loss: +3.35 (29.7%)

A solid start. @DrTwerp did ok. Here are the doctor’s recommendations for this midweek. It has now been my little smasher of a bird’s birthday so I’m on my arse again. Let’s go:

Tuesday 18^th – Blackpool v Middlesbrough

I’ve never been to Blackpool. There’s a gangster called Ian absolutely running things up there and I don’t need it. Having dropped points away recently, Easy Ian’s nutty seaside mob are 2 from 2 at home. Middlesbrough haven’t scored more than 1 on the road since Vietnam and have lost both their away games this season. Bumping into a Blackpool team who banged in six last home game (against Ipswich) 3 days after making a full 90 minutes hard work of the same Ipswich side is not ideal for Middlesbrough. I’m on a straight-up home win here with an interest in little Tommy Ince who has banged in 5 goals in 5 games to score first.

1.5 points: BLACKPOOL TO WIN – Best price 10/11 with Bet365

0.5 points: THOMAS INCE SCORE FIRST – Best Price 7/1 with Paddy Power

Peterborough v Bristol City

In my former life I used to have to drive to Peterborough now and again for meetings. For some reason the woman I used to have to meet had a motorbike inside her office. She was one of those speedway racing folk. She didn’t care about football but had she have done I would have told her that in a few seasons Peterborough will be dogsh*t. Pointless after five games this lot are unapproachable. Twelve goals conceded and meeting a Bristol City side who brought me profit buying goals at the weekend I see goals here too. The danger here is that after the Bristol crew got battered 5-3 by Blackburn on Saturday they will focus on sorting out their defence knowing they will get chances. All said and done I like goals here. Bristol City games are averaging 4.2 goals per game and over 2.5 in this one seems reasonable to me around 8/11 most places.

2 points: OVER 2.5 GOALS – 8/11 Paddy Power

Blackburn v Barnsley

When you’ve lost your first three away games 3-1, 5-1 and 3-1 you don’t need to be playing a side who banged in five at the weekend. Although Barnsley have nicked a couple of points at home last two games their away record tells me this game is a home win. Sitting top of the league, uncaught serial killer Steve Kean’s Blackburn team will be backed heavily this midweek at skinny prices. I’m not getting involved, Bulimia is a hate crime and it’s not for me. The bet here is for Blackburn to nick this. Since Barnsley got smashed by three decent sides (Wolves, Brighton and Swansea) they have livened up and both Blackburn’s home wins this season have been tight. Blackburn’s glut of goals scored has come away from home and a Blackburn home game is a strange beast. I could be wrong here but 13/5 on Blackburn to win by 1 goal can sit on my face.

1 point: 0-1 HANDICAP DRAW – 13/5 with Sportingbet

The games we will all watch this weekend are the European fixtures. I’m virtually boycotting  the opening round of Champions League fixtures so I can watch them and form some opinion however little sense it makes in a couple of weeks. However, a little treble on home wins for the new AC Milan, the new and improved PSG and the same old brand new you, Shakhtar Donetsk can’t hurt. You can bet the top boy in Donetsk isn’t  a G called Ian:

0.5 points: AC MILAN, PSG & SHAKHTAR DONETSK – 9/4 with Blue Square

I have to go now I’m getting evils.

Best of luck with your own bets and enjoy the football twerps

@DrTwerp